Date: July 14, 2025
Expected USD/INR Range: ₹85.90 – ₹85.94

The Indian rupee is projected to open lower today, trading in the ₹85.90–85.94 per US dollar range. This marks a slight depreciation compared to the previous close of ₹85.87.

Global Trade Worries Weigh on Sentiment:
The softening of the rupee comes in the backdrop of renewed global trade tensions, especially after the United States imposed fresh tariffs on imports from the European Union and Mexico. These trade frictions are driving a move toward safer assets like the U.S. dollar, reducing demand for emerging-market currencies such as the rupee

Market Caution Ahead of US Inflation Data:
Investors are awaiting U.S. inflation data due tomorrow (July 15), which could influence the Federal Reserve’s future interest rate decisions. A higher-than-expected inflation print could push up yields and further strengthen the dollar.

Dollar Strength in Global Markets:
The U.S. dollar index (DXY) remains strong, hovering above 104.50, supported by investor demand for stability amid trade uncertainty. This indirectly pressures currencies like the rupee.

Domestic Factors:
While foreign exchange reserves and remittance inflows provide some cushion, the rupee remains vulnerable to global cues. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) may step in if volatility spikes sharply, although no major intervention is expected unless the rupee breaches 86.00 levels.

Here’s a chart showing the USD to INR exchange rate over the past 10 days. As you can see, the rupee has been gradually weakening, especially in the last few days—approaching ₹85.93 per USD today.